By CIVICUS
Aug 6 2025 – CIVICUS discusses Bolivia’s upcoming presidential election with Juan Carlos Uribe and Lucas Illanes from ChequeaBolivia, an initiative that monitors and verifies social media content.
Juan Carlos Uribe and Lucas Illanes
On 17 August, 10 candidates will compete for the presidency in a context of deep political and social polarisation following the disqualification of former president Evo Morales. Polls suggest the conservative opposition could win more votes than the left for the first time in 20 years. Morales’ political heir is currently polling in third place, while the ruling party’s candidate is a distant eighth. With disinformation about possible fraud and electoral violence circulating on social media, civil society is working to preserve the integrity of the election.
What are the main challenges of the upcoming election?
The main challenge is for the electoral process to take place peacefully and for voters to be able to freely elect their next government. To this end, all politicians and groups must respect the rules of the game and not interfere in the process.
We need transparent and credible elections to avoid repeating crises such as that of 2019, when Morales won a fourth term amid fraud allegations, triggering mass protests that led to his resignation. Strengthening democracy is not just about guaranteeing the vote and the results: there’s also a need to protect the ecosystem from the spread of disinformation, hate speech and digital violence. Only then will it be possible to guarantee free, informed and conscious participation.
Who are the main candidates?
The election comes at a particularly complex time, marked by a deep economic crisis and strong political polarisation. The Movement for Socialism (MAS), which dominated the political scene for almost 20 years with Morales at the helm, is going through a period of internal division.
It has least three factions: that of Morales, who remains an important figure despite his 2019 resignation, that of the current president, Luis Arce, who came to power backed by the MAS but has a tense relationship with Morales, and that of Senate President Andrónico Rodríguez, previously seen as Morales’s natural successor.
Morales retains a strong base in Cochabamba, where he mobilises his supporters by presenting himself as the only person capable of reversing Bolivia’s economic crisis. Although the Constitutional Court disqualified his candidacy, he remains a central figure who sets the campaign’s tone. In recent months, his supporters have staged protests and blockades in several regions, causing fuel and food shortages and at least six deaths. Morales insists there can be no election without him and denounces the alleged exclusion of voters in rural areas, his main stronghold.
The opposition is also divided. Opposition candidates such as Samuel Doria Medina, Jorge Tuto Quiroga and Manfred Reyes Villa have not managed to form a common front. Other names being mentioned include Eva Copa, Eduardo del Castillo, Jhonny Fernández and Andrónico Rodríguez.
What do polls say?
The polls registered with the Supreme Electoral Tribunal place Doria Medina in the lead with around 19 per cent support. He is followed by Quiroga with 18 per cent and Rodríguez with 12 per cent. The difference between the top two is so small that there is talk of a technical tie. Reyes Villa and Paz Pereira are further down, accounting for just over 11 per cent combined.
A key fact is that around 20 per cent of the electorate is undecided or plans to cast blank votes. This, added to the fact that no candidate has support over 20 per cent, makes a second round highly likely, something unprecedented in Bolivia.
Turnout is usually high in Bolivia: in 2020, 90 per cent of registered voters cast their ballots. This is largely due to the fact that voting is compulsory and failure to vote results in a fine. However, this election presents a new factor: the majority of voters will be young people who are going to vote for the first time and know little about the candidates. In addition, rumours are circulating, particularly from groups close to Morales, that if he is not allowed to run there will be no election and violence will increase. This could create fear and affect turnout.
What role is social media playing in the campaign?
Social media is playing a key role, with the campaign taking place almost entirely in the digital sphere. Unlike previous elections, there is no longer as much activity on the streets: now the focus is mainly on TikTok, and additionally on Facebook, Instagram and Twitter/X. Doria Medina is the candidate who has invested most heavily in these platforms, collaborating with content creators to share his proposals.
But the shift to digital has also facilitated the spread of disinformation, both to promote candidates and attack rivals. We have identified three main narratives. First, there’s a narrative that takes advantage of the climate of crisis to share images and videos of clashes out of context with the aim of creating fear. Second, fake or manipulated polls are circulating, often spread by candidates to give the impression they have more support than they do. And third, there is a campaign seeking to create confusion about the eligibility of some candidates, particularly Morales, who publicly stated he was eligible.
Most of the accounts spreading this content are anonymous, but some systematically promote some candidates and attack others. All parties are involved in this dynamic to some degree, but the candidates most attacked in the last month have been Doria Medina and Rodríguez, followed by Copa, Fernández and Quiroga.
Some media outlets unwittingly contribute to spreading disinformation by prioritising immediacy over verification. They publish viral content without checking it, and if it is later proven to be false, they simply delete it without explanation. This undermines trust in journalism and fuels the cycle of disinformation.
How have digital platforms responded to disinformation?
Unfortunately, the response has been quite limited. As Bolivia is a small country, we do not have fluid channels of communication with big tech companies. In general, platforms only act in specific cases. For example, Meta intervened and deleted fake accounts impersonating the president of the Supreme Electoral Tribunal and temporarily suspended the account of Radio Kawsachun Coca, linked to Morales, for spreading disinformation. But these were isolated and inconsistent measures: the account was reactivated shortly afterwards.
Furthermore, Meta has stopped working with human fact-checkers and now relies almost exclusively on user reports to identify false content, a model we know does not work well. TikTok has also failed to implement effective measures. Although in some cases it labels videos generated with AI, there are no specific policies or efforts tailored to the Bolivian context. This inaction leaves a gap civil society has had to begin to fill.
How does ChequeaBolivia work against disinformation?
ChequeaBolivia takes a comprehensive approach that combines fact-checking, media literacy and collaborative work with different groups.
We know that debunking false or misleading news is not always enough: its reach is often much greater than that of our fact-checks. That’s why, in addition to verifying content every day, we develop strategies to give people, particularly young and Indigenous people, the tools they need to identify and stop disinformation on their own.
We launched a school for young fact-checkers and created campaigns such as Chequeatuvoto (‘check your vote’) that offers tools to promote critical thinking among first-time voters. We also work with Aymara Indigenous communities, using methodologies such as ‘rumour tracking’ to help them identify patterns of disinformation and respond with verified information in their languages.
At the same time, we are animating a coalition of over 15 civil society organisations to strengthen information integrity during the election. Although many of these organisations don’t directly work on disinformation, they recognise its cross-cutting impact on issues such as human rights, digital violence and hate speech.
We are committed to technological innovation: we are developing a chatbot to help answer questions about the electoral process and suspicious content. We also run audiovisual campaigns using clear and accessible language to help people better understand what is at stake.
Ultimately, we believe that the response cannot come from platforms or the media alone. We need the whole of civil society to get involved in building healthier digital environments where reliable information plays a leading role.
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